人口老龄化对青海省海南州居民消费的影响
摘要
人口老龄化是一个全球性问题,我国在2000年时,60岁及以上人口占总人口的比例达到了7%,这标志着我国进入了老龄型社会。到2012年,我国60岁及以上人口占总人口的比例为14.3%,处于快速老龄化阶段。然而,现阶段,中国仍处在社会主义初期,仍属于中等收入国家。在这样的背景下,中国人口老龄化体现出其独有的特征：未富先老、规模更大,速度更快,赡养负担更重,二元结构明显。中国面临着人口老龄化危机特有的巨大挑战。本文首先通过研究人口老龄化对居民家庭消费的影响，得到人口老龄化对城镇居民的消费水平存在着显著性地影响。接着对其建立回归分析，得出的结论是人口老龄化程度每提高1%，城镇居民的人均消费水平将会增加363.58元；接着使用灰色关联度分析法分析年龄结构对消费的影响，得出不同的年龄结构对居民消费的需求不同，城乡的老年人口的消费需求也存在着很大的差异，农村老年人的居民消费还是普遍低于城镇的消费。但是通过比较城镇老年人口与农村老年人口8类消费品的排序情况可以发现，人口老龄化使得衣着、医疗保健、教育文化娱乐服务三大类消费品成为主要的消费项目。说明老龄化推动老年人更关注生活质量、身体健康和精神文化生活。最后针对于因为老龄化所带来的问题，提出了一些建议和措施。
关键词：青海省海南州；人口老龄化；格兰杰检验； 回归分析；灰色关联度
Abstract
The aging of population is a global problem. In 2000, the proportion of population aged 60 and above accounted for 7% of the total population, which indicates that China has entered an aging society. By 2012, China's population aged 60 and above accounted for 14.3% of the total population, which is in the stage of rapid aging. However, at this stage, China is still in the early stage of socialism and still belongs to a middle-income country. In this context, China's aging population reflects its unique characteristics: old before rich, larger scale, faster speed, heavier burden of support, and obvious dual structure. China is facing a huge challenge of aging population crisis. This paper first studies the impact of population aging on household consumption, and concludes that the aging population has a significant impact on the consumption level of urban residents. Then the regression analysis is established, and the conclusion is that the per capita consumption level of urban residents will increase by 363.58 yuan when the aging degree of the population is increased by 1%; then, the influence of age structure on consumption is analyzed by using the grey correlation analysis method, and it is concluded that different age structures have different demands on Residents' consumption, and there are great differences in the consumption demands of urban and rural elderly population The consumption of the elderly in villages is generally lower than that in cities and towns. However, by comparing the order of eight kinds of consumer goods between urban elderly population and rural elderly population, we can find that the aging population makes clothing, health care, education, culture and entertainment services become the main consumption items. It shows that aging promotes the elderly to pay more attention to the quality of life, physical health and spiritual and cultural life. Finally, some suggestions and measures are put forward for the problems caused by aging.
Key words: Hainan prefecture, Qinghai Province; population aging; Granger test; regression analysis; grey correlation degree
目录
1.绪论 1
1.1问题的提出 1
1.2文献综述 2
2. 模型与数据 3
2.1模型 3
2.1.1 回归模型 3
2.1.2 灰色系统理论模型 3
2.2数据 4
3. 人口老龄化对青海省海南州居民消费的影响的实证分析 6
3. 1 人口老龄化对居民家庭消费的影响分析 6
3.2 人口老龄化对居民消费结构的影响分析 8
4. 研究结论与建议 10
4.1结论 10
4.2 建议 11
参考文献： 13
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