气候变化对未来长江上游径流的影响研究
摘要
全球气候变暖引起水循环加快，影响大气环流，从而改变降水的时空分布及强度，蒸发、入渗、径流等水文过程随之发生变化。气候变暖还会导致干旱、洪水等极端水文事件的频次和强度增加，进而影响局部地区的社会经济发展。长江是我国最大的江河，在我国国土开发、生产力布局和社会经济方面，均具有极为重要的战略地位。因此，研究气候变化对长江上游流域径流的影响，对于制订应对气候变化影响的区域适应性措施具有重要意义。
论文利用长期监测水文气象资料，DEM、土壤、植被等数据，依托VIC模型构建了气候变化对径流影响评估模型，将气候模式输出单向嵌套模型，模拟了未来30年（2021-2050年）RCP4.5情景下长江上游日径流过程，评估了气候变化对径流时空变化及其空间分布格局的影响。主要研究成果与结论如下：
（1）VIC模型在9个典型流域径流模拟表明，模型相对误差在-16.2%～21.7%之间；日流量过程效率系数平均值为0.75；月流量过程效率系数平均值为0.87。总的来说，基于VIC模型构建的气候变化对径流影响评估模型在长江上游流域是适用的的。
（2）与基准期（1971-2000年）相比，未来30年RCP4.5情景下流域多年平均气温呈显著增加趋势，升温幅度约为1°C～2°C之间。多年平均降水增加1.2%，在II区南部，IV区和VI区降水呈现减少趋势，其他区域都呈现出增加趋势。与气温预估结果相比，不同气候模式预估降水变化一致性较差，存在较大的不确定性。
（3）径流未来30年里总体呈减少趋势，多年平均径流较基准期减少2.8%，除西部和西南部等局部区域有小幅增加，其他大部分区域都呈现出减少趋势，但减幅较小，在2%～8%之间。在RCP4.5情景下尽管多数模式预估径流呈减少趋势但在NORESM1-M模式下，预估结果与之相反。因此，对于评估结果应注意其还存在一定不确定性。
关键词：气候变化、RCP4.5情景、VIC模型、趋势检验、长江上游流域
Assessing the impacts of future climate change on runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River
Abstract
The global warming causes the water cycle to accelerate, the influence of the atmospheric circulation, thus changing the spatial and temporal distribution and intensity of precipitation, evaporation, infiltration, runoff and other hydrological processes will be changed. Climate warming will also lead to droughts, floods and other extreme weather frequency and intensity increases, and thus affect the social and economic development of local areas. The Yangtze River is the largest river in China, which has a very important strategic position in the development of China, the distribution of productive forces and the social and economic aspects. Therefore, it is significant to study the impact of climate change on the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, which has important significance for the development of regional adaptation measures to deal with the impact of climate change.
The long-term monitoring of hydrological and meteorological data, DEM, soil, vegetation, etc. data, relying on the VIC model to construct the climate change impacts on runoff assessment model, will climate model outputs a one-way nested model to simulate the next 30 years RCPs scenarios in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River daily runoff process, in order to assess the effects of climate change on runoff of spatio temporal changes and spatial distribution. The main research results and conclusions are as follows:
(1)The runoff simulation of VIC model in 9 typical watersheds shows that the relative error of the model is between -16.2% ~ 21.7%; the average daily flow process efficiency coefficient is 0.75; the average monthly flow process efficiency coefficient is 0.87. In general, it is feasible to evaluate the impact of climate change on runoff based on the VIC model.
(2)Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000 years), the average temperature in the basin over the next 30 years RCP4.5 was significantly increased, and the heating range was about 1 °C ~ 2 °C. Average annual precipitation increased by 1.2%, in the Southern District of II, IV and VI region precipitation showed decreasing trend, other regions presents increasing trend. Compared with the predicted results, the different climate models predict the consistency of precipitation change is poor, there is a big uncertainty.
(3)Runoff in the next 30 years showed an overall decreasing trend, multi-year average runoff as compared with the baseline period decrease of 2.8%, in addition to Western and southwestern region has increased slightly, most of the other regions presents decreasing trend, but the decrease amplitude is smaller, between the 2% ~ 8%. In the RCP4.5 scenario, though most of the model estimates show a decreasing trend in runoff, the prediction results are in contrast to the NORESM1-M model. Therefore, it should be noted that there are some uncertainties in the assessment results.
Keywords: Climate change, RCP4.5 scenario, VIC model, Trend test, The upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin
目 录
摘要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景及意义 1
1.2 国内外研究进展 2
1.2.1 国内外关于气候变化对水文水资源影响的研究历程 2
1.2.2 气候变化与水文响应研究进展 5
1.3 主要内容与技术路线 6
1.3.1 主要研究内容 6
1.3.2 技术路线 6
第2章 资料与方法 8
2.1 研究区概况 8
2.2 资料数据 9
2.2.1 实测气象资料 9
2.2.2 排放情景 10
2.2.3 气候模式模拟数据 11
2.2.4 模式数据偏差订正 11
2.3 主要研究方法 12
2.3.1 影响评估模型的构建 12
2.3.2 Man-Kendall趋势检验法 15
第3章 长江上游气候变化预估 17
3.1 气温变化 17
3.1.1 空间变化 17
3.1.2 时间变化 21
3.2 降水变化 26
3.2.1 空间变化 26
3.2.2 时间变化 30
第4章 长江上游径流对气候变化的响应 34
4.1 影响评估模型的适用性 34
4.2 空间变化 37
4.3 时间变化 41
第5章 结论与展望 45
5.1 主要结论 45
5.2 展望 46
参考文献 47
致 谢 51
附录 52
外文原文 52
外文译文 70
毕业论文任务书 80
华北水利水电大学本科生毕业论文开题报告 81
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